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A bit more movement than expected in today's offering. Marquette came close to getting a very solid resume building win but couldn't hold on at Butler. They played well and proved they should be considered for an at-large bid, and don't drop due to this loss. Seton Hall on the other hand, lost at Villanova, most teams do, but they didn't look competitive at all and have lost three in a row now, so they slide a bit. Creighton got a big win at Xavier but it might cost them in the coming weeks as starting PG Mo Watson with a knee injury. Also, Kansas won, again.

PLEASE NOTE - My projections are based on at-large chances, so only conference leaders from 1-bid conferences are not placed in a First Four game.  Until a team wins the conference tournament, they are not officially a lock and can be placed in a First Four game or even out.

DISCLAIMER: From Wikipedia - Bracketology is the process of predicting the field of college basketball participants in the NCAA Basketball Tournament, named as such because it is commonly used to fill in tournament brackets for the postseason. It incorporates some method of predicting what the NCAA Selection Committee will use as its Ratings Percentage Index in order to determine at-large (non-conference winning) teams to complete the field of 68 teams, and, to seed the field by ranking all teams from first through sixty-eighth. Bracketology also encompasses the process of predicting the winners of each of the brackets. In recent years the concept of Bracketology has been applied to areas outside of basketball..

The part above that is in bold - this is what I do. If you choose to use my picks to try and win your office pool, then it's your own fault for doing so. I stink when it comes to doing that and make no secret about it. Madness is Madness, it rules, and no one gets them all right.

Last updated 01/17/2017 05:37 AM Central Time 

Seeds

Seed East - New York Midwest - Kansas City South - Memphis West - San Jose
1 Villanova 18-1   Kansas 17-1   Baylor 16-1   UCLA 18-1  
2 Kentucky 15-2   Creighton 18-1   Florida State 16-2   Gonzaga 17-0  
3 North Carolina 17-3   Oregon 16-2   Butler 16-3   Louisville 15-3  
4 Notre Dame 16-2   Duke 14-4   Florida 14-3   West Virginia 15-2  
5 Arizona 16-2   Cincinnati 15-2   Minnesota 15-4 Virginia 13-3  
6 Maryland 16-2   SMU 15-4   Wisconsin 14-3   Xavier 13-5
7 Saint Mary's 15-2   TCU 14-3   Purdue 14-4   USC 16-3  
8 Michigan State 12-7   South Carolina 15-3   Clemson 11-6   Northwestern 15-4  
9 VCU 14-4   Virginia Tech 13-4   Dayton 13-4   Arkansas 13-4
10 Illinois 12-6   Pittsburgh 12-6   Mid Tennessee State 15-3   Indiana 12-6
11 Illinois State 14-4   Seton Hall 12-5 Marquette 12-6   Penn State 11-7/Georgia 11-6  
12 Nevada 15-3   Nebraska 9-8/Michigan 12-6   Chattanooga 14-4   UNC-Wilmington 17-2  
13 Valparaiso 15-4   Monmouth 14-5 Akron 14-3   Vermont 15-5  
14 Winthrop 13-4   Belmont 11-4   FGCU 14-5   Georgia Southern 12-6
15 Princeton 10-6   Bucknell 13-6   Texas Southern 9-9 New Mexico State 17-2  
16 Long Island 12-7/NC Central 12-6   New Orleans 9-7 Weber State 9-6/North Dakota State 11-6   UC Irvine 10-9  
                 
Last 4 in -  Penn State, Georgia, Michigan, Nebraska  
First 4 out -   Rhode Island, California, Providence, LaSalle  
Others considered for at-large bids (in no particular order) -   Iowa State, Stanford, Oklahoma State, UCF, Wichita State, Texas A&M, Houston, Memphis, Ohio State, Wake Forest, Iowa, Kansas State, Auburn, Ole Miss, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Texas Tech, LSU, North Carolina State, Georgetown, Miami, Charleston, Temple, Colorado, UTA, Georgia Tech  
Moving In  
Moving out  
No longer considered for at-large bid -   
Multi bid conferences - Big 10 (11), ACC (9), Big East (6), SEC (5), Big 12 (4), PAC 12 (4), A-10 (2), AAC - (2), WCC (2)  
Leaders or highest RPI from projected 1-bid conferences - (23 total)America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - FGCU, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UC Irvine, CAA - UNC-Wilmington, C-USA - Mid Tennessee State, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - NC Central, MVC - Illinois State, MWC - Nevada, Northeast - Long Island, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - New Orleans, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia Southern, WAC - New Mexico State  
 
Banned from participating - Hawaii, Southern Mississippi, Alcorn State, Savannah State, Northern Colorado  
Transition Schools, ineligible for the tourney - Abilene Christian (Southland), Grand Canyon (WAC), Incarnate Word (Southland), Massachusetts-Lowell (American East)  
Teams in Blue are officially IN the tournament.
Teams in Black are LOCKS for the tournament as of today (Bold faced for 1-bid leagues - league leader or highest RPI chosen for now) 
Teams in Red are on the bubble or have work left to do

 


Bracket

East - New York     South - Memphis  
Buffalo   Tulsa
1 Villanova 18-1     1 Baylor 16-1  
16 Long Island 12-7/NC Central 12-6     16 Weber State 9-6/North Dakota State 11-6  
8 Michigan State 12-7     8 Clemson 11-6  
9 VCU 14-4     9 Dayton 13-4  
Salt Lake City   Orlando
5 Arizona 16-2     5 Minnesota 15-4
12 Nevada 15-3     12 Chattanooga 14-4  
13 Valparaiso 15-4     13 Akron 14-3  
4 Notre Dame 16-2     4 Florida 14-3  
Greenville   Milwaukee
3 North Carolina 17-3     3 Butler 16-3  
14 Winthrop 13-4     14 FGCU 14-5  
6 Maryland 16-2     6 Wisconsin 14-3  
11 Illinois State 14-4     11 Marquette 12-6  
Indianapolis   Orlando
10 Illinois 12-6     10 Mid Tennessee State 15-3  
7 Saint Mary's 15-2     7 Purdue 14-4  
15 Princeton 10-6     15 Texas Southern 9-9
2 Kentucky 15-2     2 Florida State 16-2  
             
West - San Jose     Midwest - Kansas City  
Sacramento   Tulsa
1 UCLA 18-1     1 Kansas 17-1  
16 UC Irvine 10-9     16 New Orleans 9-7
8 Northwestern 15-4     8 South Carolina 15-3  
9 Arkansas 13-4   9 Virginia Tech 13-4  
Buffalo   Greenville
5 Virginia 13-3     5 Cincinnati 15-2  
12 UNC-Wilmington 17-2     12 Nebraska 9-8/Michigan 12-6  
13 Vermont 15-5     13 Monmouth 14-5
4 West Virginia 15-2     4 Duke 14-4  
Indianapolis   Sacramento
3 Louisville 15-3     3 Oregon 16-2  
14 Georgia Southern 12-6   14 Belmont 11-4  
6 Xavier 13-5   6 SMU 15-4  
11 Penn State 11-7/Georgia 11-6     11 Seton Hall 12-5
Salt Lake City   Milwaukee
10 Indiana 12-6   10 Pittsburgh 12-6  
7 USC 16-3     7 TCU 14-3  
15 New Mexico State 17-2     15 Bucknell 13-6  
2 Gonzaga 17-0     2 Creighton 18-1  

Match-ups
Seed East - New York Midwest - Kansas City South - Memphis West - San Jose
1 Villanova 18-1   Kansas 17-1   Baylor 16-1   UCLA 18-1  
16 Long Island 12-7/NC Central 12-6   New Orleans 9-7 Weber State 9-6/North Dakota State 11-6   UC Irvine 10-9  
8 Michigan State 12-7   South Carolina 15-3   Clemson 11-6   Northwestern 15-4  
9 VCU 14-4   Virginia Tech 13-4   Dayton 13-4   Arkansas 13-4
12 Nevada 15-3   Nebraska 9-8/Michigan 12-6   Chattanooga 14-4   UNC-Wilmington 17-2  
5 Arizona 16-2   Cincinnati 15-2   Minnesota 15-4 Virginia 13-3  
13 Valparaiso 15-4   Monmouth 14-5 Akron 14-3   Vermont 15-5  
4 Notre Dame 16-2   Duke 14-4   Florida 14-3   West Virginia 15-2  
3 North Carolina 17-3   Oregon 16-2   Butler 16-3   Louisville 15-3  
14 Winthrop 13-4   Belmont 11-4   FGCU 14-5   Georgia Southern 12-6
6 Maryland 16-2   SMU 15-4   Wisconsin 14-3   Xavier 13-5
11 Illinois State 14-4   Seton Hall 12-5 Marquette 12-6   Penn State 11-7/Georgia 11-6  
10 Illinois 12-6   Pittsburgh 12-6   Mid Tennessee State 15-3   Indiana 12-6
7 Saint Mary's 15-2   TCU 14-3   Purdue 14-4   USC 16-3  
15 Princeton 10-6   Bucknell 13-6   Texas Southern 9-9 New Mexico State 17-2  
2 Kentucky 15-2   Creighton 18-1   Florida State 16-2   Gonzaga 17-0  

These projections are based on how I think the committee will make their selections, not how I would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.  If you have any questions or comments about these predictions, if you find any errors, or if you just want to talk hoops feel free to email me.  Please note this is for entertainment purposes only. Yes, W.A.G. stands for Wild Ass Guess.  Thanks and enjoy.

 

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