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After many many weeks on the 1-line, Baylor has finally dropped to the 2-line, being replaced by North Carolina, who put a whoopin on Virginia. Baylor's loss to Kansas isn't a bad loss, but they've been piling up of late, so the change was needed. UNC does not have a firm grasp on a 1-seed, but for now, I'm good with it. Miami and Marquette both move in after important wins and other bubble teams dropping out. Several teams have fallen out of contention for an at-large bid due to mounting losses and/or lack of opportunity remaining for a signature win. Others have been put on "Life Support" mainly because of lack of opportunity for big wins remaining. They aren't out of the discussion, but are real long shots I think.

PLEASE NOTE - My projections are based on at-large chances, so only conference leaders from 1-bid conferences are not placed in a First Four game.  Until a team wins the conference tournament, they are not officially a lock and can be placed in a First Four game or even out.

DISCLAIMER: From Wikipedia - Bracketology is the process of predicting the field of college basketball participants in the NCAA Basketball Tournament, named as such because it is commonly used to fill in tournament brackets for the postseason. It incorporates some method of predicting what the NCAA Selection Committee will use as its Ratings Percentage Index in order to determine at-large (non-conference winning) teams to complete the field of 68 teams, and, to seed the field by ranking all teams from first through sixty-eighth. Bracketology also encompasses the process of predicting the winners of each of the brackets. In recent years the concept of Bracketology has been applied to areas outside of basketball..

The part above that is in bold - this is what I do. If you choose to use my picks to try and win your office pool, then it's your own fault for doing so. I stink when it comes to doing that and make no secret about it. Madness is Madness, it rules, and no one gets them all right.

Last updated 02/19/2017 06:55 AM Central Time 

Seeds

Seed East - New York Midwest - Kansas City South - Memphis West - San Jose
1 Villanova 26-2   Kansas 24-3   North Carolina 23-5 Gonzaga 28-0  
2 Florida State 21-6   Louisville 22-5   Baylor 22-5 Oregon 24-4  
3 Kentucky 22-5   Arizona 25-3   Florida 22-5   Duke 22-5  
4 West Virginia 21-6   Butler 20-6   UCLA 24-3   Purdue 22-5
5 Virginia 18-8 Notre Dame 21-7   Maryland 22-4   Cincinnati 24-3  
6 Creighton 21-5   Minnesota 19-7 SMU 24-4   Wisconsin 21-5  
7 South Carolina 20-7 Iowa State 17-9   Xavier 18-9   Oklahoma State 18-9  
8 VCU 22-5   Northwestern 20-7   Saint Mary's 24-3 Dayton 21-5  
9 Virginia Tech 18-8 Arkansas 20-7 Michigan 17-9   USC 21-6  
10 Michigan State 16-11   California 18-8 Syracuse 16-11   Miami-Fla 18-8
11 Clemson 14-12/TCU 17-10 Seton Hall 16-10/Tennessee 15-12 Marquette 16-10 Mid Tennessee State 24-4  
12 UNC-Wilmington 24-5   Texas Arlington 20-6   Monmouth 23-5   Illinois State 22-5  
13 Vermont 24-5   Valparaiso 21-6   Princeton 17-6   UNC-Ashville 22-7  
14 Akron 22-5   Boise State 17-8   New Mexico State 23-4   Belmont 20-5  
15 FGCU 22-7   Bucknell 20-8   Furman 20-9   North Dakota State 18-9  
16 Mt. St. Mary's 15-14/New Orleans 16-9 NC Central 20-6/North Dakota 17--8 Texas Southern 15-11   UC Irvine 16-12
                 
Last 4 in - Marquette, Tennessee, TCU, Clemson  
First 4 out - Georgetown, Kansas State, Wichita State, Georgia Tech  
Moving In - Miami-Fla, Marquette, North Dakota, UC Irvine  
Moving out - Georgia Tech, Georgetown, Weber State, UC Davis  
Others considered for at-large bids -  Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Providence, Indiana, Alabama, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Illinois      
On Life Support - Rhode Island, Houston, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Georgia, Ole Miss      
No longer considered for at-large bid - UConn, Texas, Texas Arlington, Charleston, New Mexico, Boise State, LaSalle, Davidson, Chattanooga, Saint Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, BYU, Oklahoma, Charleston, Nebraska, Temple, North Carolina State, Stanford, Nevada, Texas A&M, Memphis, Utah, Iowa, Auburn      
Multi bid conferences - ACC (10), Big 10 (7), Big 12 (6), Big East (6), PAC 12 (5), SEC (5), A-10 (2), AAC - (2), WCC (2)  
Leaders or highest RPI from projected 1-bid conferences - (23 total)America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - FGCU, Big Sky - North Dakota, Big South - UNC-Ashville, Big West - UC Irvine, CAA - UNC-Wilmington, C-USA - Mid Tennessee State, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - NC Central, MVC - Illinois State, MWC - Boise State, Northeast - Mount Saint Mary's, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Furman, Southland - New Orleans, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Texas Arlington, WAC - New Mexico State      
 
Banned from participating - Hawaii, Southern Mississippi, Alcorn State, Savannah State, Northern Colorado  
Transition Schools, ineligible for the tourney - Abilene Christian (Southland), Grand Canyon (WAC), Incarnate Word (Southland), Massachusetts-Lowell (American East)  
Teams in Blue are officially IN the tournament.
Teams in Black are LOCKS for the tournament as of today (Bold faced for 1-bid leagues - league leader or highest RPI chosen for now) 
Teams in Red are on the bubble or have work left to do

 


Bracket

East - New York     South - Memphis  
Buffalo   Greenville
1 Villanova 26-2     1 North Carolina 23-5
16 Mt. St. Mary's 15-14/New Orleans 16-9   16 Texas Southern 15-11  
8 VCU 22-5     8 Saint Mary's 24-3
9 Virginia Tech 18-8   9 Michigan 17-9  
Buffalo   Sacramento
5 Virginia 18-8   5 Maryland 22-4  
12 UNC-Wilmington 24-5     12 Monmouth 23-5  
13 Vermont 24-5     13 Princeton 17-6  
4 West Virginia 21-6     4 UCLA 24-3  
Indianapolis   Orlando
3 Kentucky 22-5     3 Florida 22-5  
14 Akron 22-5     14 New Mexico State 23-4  
6 Creighton 21-5     6 SMU 24-4  
11 Clemson 14-12/TCU 17-10   11 Marquette 16-10
Orlando   Tulsa
10 Michigan State 16-11     10 Syracuse 16-11  
7 South Carolina 20-7   7 Xavier 18-9  
15 FGCU 22-7     15 Furman 20-9  
2 Florida State 21-6     2 Baylor 22-5
             
West - San Jose     Midwest - Kansas City  
Salt Lake City   Tulsa
1 Gonzaga 28-0     1 Kansas 24-3  
16 UC Irvine 16-12   16 NC Central 20-6/North Dakota 17--8
8 Dayton 21-5     8 Northwestern 20-7  
9 USC 21-6     9 Arkansas 20-7
Milwaukee   Milwaukee
5 Cincinnati 24-3     5 Notre Dame 21-7  
12 Illinois State 22-5     12 Texas Arlington 20-6  
13 UNC-Ashville 22-7     13 Valparaiso 21-6  
4 Purdue 22-5   4 Butler 20-6  
Greenville   Salt Lake City
3 Duke 22-5     3 Arizona 25-3  
14 Belmont 20-5     14 Boise State 17-8  
6 Wisconsin 21-5     6 Minnesota 19-7
11 Mid Tennessee State 24-4     11 Seton Hall 16-10/Tennessee 15-12
Sacramento   Indianapolis
10 Miami-Fla 18-8   10 California 18-8
7 Oklahoma State 18-9     7 Iowa State 17-9  
15 North Dakota State 18-9     15 Bucknell 20-8  
2 Oregon 24-4     2 Louisville 22-5  

Match-ups
Seed East - New York Midwest - Kansas City South - Memphis West - San Jose
1 Villanova 26-2   Kansas 24-3   North Carolina 23-5 Gonzaga 28-0  
16 Mt. St. Mary's 15-14/New Orleans 16-9 NC Central 20-6/North Dakota 17--8 Texas Southern 15-11   UC Irvine 16-12
8 VCU 22-5   Northwestern 20-7   Saint Mary's 24-3 Dayton 21-5  
9 Virginia Tech 18-8 Arkansas 20-7 Michigan 17-9   USC 21-6  
12 UNC-Wilmington 24-5   Texas Arlington 20-6   Monmouth 23-5   Illinois State 22-5  
5 Virginia 18-8 Notre Dame 21-7   Maryland 22-4   Cincinnati 24-3  
13 Vermont 24-5   Valparaiso 21-6   Princeton 17-6   UNC-Ashville 22-7  
4 West Virginia 21-6   Butler 20-6   UCLA 24-3   Purdue 22-5
3 Kentucky 22-5   Arizona 25-3   Florida 22-5   Duke 22-5  
14 Akron 22-5   Boise State 17-8   New Mexico State 23-4   Belmont 20-5  
6 Creighton 21-5   Minnesota 19-7 SMU 24-4   Wisconsin 21-5  
11 Clemson 14-12/TCU 17-10 Seton Hall 16-10/Tennessee 15-12 Marquette 16-10 Mid Tennessee State 24-4  
10 Michigan State 16-11   California 18-8 Syracuse 16-11   Miami-Fla 18-8
7 South Carolina 20-7 Iowa State 17-9   Xavier 18-9   Oklahoma State 18-9  
15 FGCU 22-7   Bucknell 20-8   Furman 20-9   North Dakota State 18-9  
2 Florida State 21-6   Louisville 22-5   Baylor 22-5 Oregon 24-4  

These projections are based on how I think the committee will make their selections, not how I would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.  If you have any questions or comments about these predictions, if you find any errors, or if you just want to talk hoops feel free to email me.  Please note this is for entertainment purposes only. Yes, W.A.G. stands for Wild Ass Guess.  Thanks and enjoy.



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